EURASIAN GEOPOLITICS: CHINA AND THE FORTHCOMING WAR

Yves Bataille

A part of a lecture held at the Institute for international studies in Beijing, published as a shortened review in an Italian geopolitical magazine “Eurasia”, Eurasia-rivista.org

For quite a long time, China’s place, importance and its role in international relations have been heavily discussed, as well as its future role in the coming times and a new distribution of power that is sure to come. China is definitely a force to be reckoned with and it surely can not be overlooked. As a great force of the coming century, the Chinese are already starting to worry the USA, the constantly keep the EU on its toes, while they have already made a blueprint for a future geopolitical alliance with Russia.

PRECONDITIONS FOR CHINA’S GEOPOLITICAL POSITION

More than most countries in the world, China is a victim of eternal clichés. Western and European military experts who study China, can not even start talking about China, without quoting the ever-popular Sun-Tsu. A part of the Western right-wing can not discuss China without warning the West of the so-called “yellow invasion”; a part of the European so-called “pro-American” left-wing is still very critic towards China because of Tiananmen, and alleged Chinese abuse of human rights. Finally, there was a recent media campaign in France, which tried to convince the public that the market had been flooded by cheap Chinese goods, and that this had presented a real economic threat to the Westerners. Despite all these claims, everyone is happy to sell their own goods to China, because “China is too big”, in the words of Henry Kissinger. The goods which the West offers to China range from the highest technologies, through transport and commercial aircrafts, all the way to knowledge in making of wine. Since the Chinese already know how to brew their own beer, Tsingtao, they are now trying to start producing high quality wine, using both modern technologies and traditional experience, with the help of the French. Also, half of the 500 million cell-phone users in China are using Nokia brand cell-phones, even though China itself produces several brands. A Finnish jet-plane is also ever-present on the prospect of Beijing’s futuristic looking airport.

In the sector of car industry, all the mega companies of the world are flooding the huge, fast developing Chinese market, which is made easier with the highly modern networks of roads and highways. The Chinese car market is probably the richest one in the world, since it is made up of every category possible – high class automobiles (Mercedes, BMW, Audi), American vehicles (Chrysler, General Motors) and all types of cars from their neighbors, Korea and Japan. Chinese car-park is developing at the speed of light, and their cooperation with Citroen, which almost holds a monopole in Chinese taxi business, keeps getting stronger. Also, fashion designers and high-class perfumeries, as well as chains of French and other European luxury restaurants, have claimed their share of the market in this country, to the pleasure of better standing Chinese people. Those who are ranked lower in the Chinese social ranking are satisfied with Chinese home grown service, made to resemble French services, similar to those in Tokyo and Seoul. Finally, the largest industrial and merchant companies of the world can not seem serious in their business, if they do not have their offices in Beijing or Shanghai.

The Confucian sense for trading that China has been using in international relations is very obvious. When the Westerners accused China of flooding their markets with cheap shirts, the Chinese Minister for trade and export readily responded, saying that to buy just one European AIR-BUS A380 airplane, 800 million shirts needed to be sold! Of course, the Western consumers are quite happy to be able to buy cheap Chinese shirts, no matter what their respective governments have to say, and those who have something against Chinese sense for trading, are often those who are the keenest in seeking cheap labor all over the world. The so-called “industrial delocalization”, which bothers the workers in those Western countries, does not bother their governments, nor does the cheap labor of the “developing countries” which they cruelly abuse, paying them below than minimal wages, without giving them social security or rights for unions. But, the Chinese ability to place their cheap goods into every international market bothers them very much. The Chinese have shown themselves as more capable when it comes to production, and they need to be given credit for that. The Chinese hard working immigration has flooded the confection stores all over France, and their ability to work as one and for the sake of the whole community, irrationally bothers those who could possibly learn something from Confucianism. Proclaiming the idea of a free market, while at the same time deny the rights of the most hard working country in the world the right to enter that free market, must be called a hypocrisy!

When the West-European countries disapprove China’s pollution, the Chinese immediately remind them with their own experiences with pollution, and with the fact that the USA is still world’s number one polluter. The Chinese are also not bothered with our remarks on their growing urbanization, or on their brigades of workers who are singing when going to work in factories with a dose of militarism of a bygone era. They have simply kept the things which are a part of their tradition. To have a job is a privilege for the Chinese, and, in the spirit of Confucius, they are happy when they work. Today, China is preoccupied with strengthening of the industry and increasing the production, always respecting the rules of the World trading organization of which China is a member since 2001, but the most important thing for China today is reciprocity in relations and trading with the West.

It could be said that the Opium wars, which symbolize the arrogance and the hypocrisy of British imperialism (totally accepted today by the USA), have been long over, and that the Chinese will always remember that humiliating other nations is in the core of the Anglo-Saxon culture. But, this ancient nation, raised from the dawn of mankind, is showing us that industry and trading are not their own purpose and goal, like they are in the West, but that they are only a way of proving one country’s strength and importance within the international community, and claiming its GEOPOLITICAL POSITION.

Today, China manages to be industrially capable and superior, but for China this race is not an instrument of globalization, as is the case in our countries, but, on the contrary, an instrument for recovery of the nation. This is the main reason why the European hypocritical critics are so annoyed with Chinese development.

Fearing a strong, industrialized, nuclear capable, cosmically able China, the USA is trying to forbid this force from selling weapons and technically refined products. The embargo on selling weapons against China is kept by the West only because of the constant pressure Washington is putting on its Western allies since the Tiananmen incident in 1989, when the Chinese demonstrations had been interpreted as a wish for establishing a democracy of a Western type.

However, this enormous country is still strengthening its “People’s liberation army”, and anarchy is still prevented with the presence of the Communist party of China, a succeeder of the liberating movements and teachings of Mao Tse Tung. China is one of the few countries which have not broken up with their historic roots in order to economically flourish. This ancient historical creation in which the dominant ethnic element is Han, managed to hold together no less than 53 ethnic communities, even in vast continental, poorly populated regions such as Xinjiang or Tibet. This enormous country, only because of its clever rulers which have kept memories of past experiences, manages to keep all those regions which could possibly become targets of separatists, like Manjuria, under control. Despite the fact that those regions have been targets of the Western provocations of separatism, seen before in the sacrificed Yugoslavia, despite Hong Kong’s autonomy where the British have left their political vassals, China still manages to keep the whole country together. To penetrate into Chinese traditional and political interior is extremely difficult, almost impossible, and all the emanations of George Soros, the so-called “humanitarian organizations”, “charity funds”, “non-governmental organizations”, and others similar to those detected in Russia and Byelorussia, have a completely Sisyphus-like mission in China.

GEOPOLITICS AND PSYCHOLOGY: THE BEAR AND THE DRAGON, AND THE SERBIAN EXAMPLE

To protect itself from being politically stabbed in the back, China is today very agile in nurturing its relations with Russia and the Eurasia. The so-called “Shanghai cooperation organization”, gathers round China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan (1). Another important goal of this country is to keep itself well supplied with oil and gas in large quantities, which are needed for its incredibly fast industrial development, since the Chinese production of these resources is not enough.

For these reasons, Chinese diplomacy has increased its contacts and cooperation with great oil producers of the world such as Venezuela, Iran or Gabon. No less interest is shown for the Brazilian “green, eco-oil”. In Pakistan, China is keeping its traditional good relations with the authorities in Islamabad, in order to preserve its passage towards the Indian Ocean, building a new harbor there, and also to develop an oil terminal Geadar in Bapuchistan. On the other side, from the Far East, through its good relations with Russia, China has managed to arrange to be supplied with Russian hydrocarburators, which are heading for the Manjuria and the shores of Pacific.

From time to time, a speculation of a possible “danger of the Chinese”, in case China decides to invade the poorly populated Siberian regions. This is exactly the main idea of the book called “The Bear and the Dragon”, by a theoretic of the new cold war in the era of information wars and cosmic wars, Tom Clancy. In a futuristic study if this author, the Chinese are depicted as a nation prepared to take over every oil rig and gold mine there is in Siberia, thus starting a war with Russia, which, weakened by its oligarchs and other interior troubles, calls for the help of the USA. This fiction, published in 2000, could be possible if it had not primarily shown the latent plot of the Western forces in which their potential targets in the future, China and Russia, go to war and exterminate each other, thus becoming just another instrument for creating the myth of the “Chinese danger”. Like many other studies coming from the West, this one also irrationally presumes that the Chinese authorities are so politically unintelligent, that they allow for the suicide of their country, and it also presumes that Russia will never be able to revive its former military strength and its army. Probably ordered by the Pentagon, this study latently consisted of every American plan for dividing and attacking Russia and China, especially China, before it becomes indestructible, or so to say “irreparably strong”.

However, to the great despair and disappointment of the North American strategy planners, the geopolitical events in Eurasia in recent years have taken a completely different course, course of forming a defensive geopolitical wall, based on political and military cooperation between Russia and China. The best example of this cooperation is the aforementioned “Shanghai cooperation organization”, founded in 2000, with an initiative of the Russian president Vladimir Putin, and his Chinese homologue, Jiang Zaemin (replaced today by Hu Jing Tao, while his predecessor remained in the top ranks of the Central Chinese military commission). Thanks to this organization, the USA was recently forced to evacuate its military base Khanabad in Uzbekistan, installed there in 2001, after the American “antiterrorist” crusade against the whole world. The Shanghai organization called for the removal of all such “antiterrorist coalition” military bases from the territories of the organization’s members. On the former “red line” of the river Oussouri, a place where there could have been a conflict in the past between China and Russia, in the year 2005, a joined Russian-Chinese military drill was executed.

Besides this obvious goal for every American base to be removed from Central Asia, the cooperation between Moscow and Beijing has been formed in order to stop the so-called “orange revolution” disease, which has not only affected neighboring Kyrgyzstan, but every country in the world where there was a government disliked by the Americans.

THE COUNTRY OF “36 STRATEGIES” AND THE FIRST THEORIES OF A PSYCHOLOGICAL WAR

However, it is very naïve to think that something could be politically provoked in a country where “36 strategies for winning a war without shooting a single arrow” had been born, where the first theory of a psychological war had been thought of, in a country of outstanding analyses and predictions (especially after the NATO aggression against Federal republic of Yugoslavia, and especially against Serbia in 1999, led by the USA with its 18 allies). Chinese military experts were exhaustively studying the dismemberment of the former Yugoslavia, as well as the war against Serbia.

Zhang Zhaodong is the author of three books printed in Beijing in 1999, all three concerning the NATO aggression against Serbia. This ex-navy officer and a professor at the Chinese National University of defense, in his first book “Who will win the forthcoming war?” (2), written a bit like Alvin, or Heidi Toffler (3), he explains the strategy of combat in which air-strikes are now the most important forms of an attack, and that the future of wars are missiles and laser beams. As a theoretic, Zhang Zhaodong claims that the Pacific will be the main battlefield in the future. He emphasizes the importance of the islands as bases for air-defense stations and the need for China to prepare itself for this new way of combat, by developing its industry to the maximum. The quantity of army material and soldiers will not be important anymore, only quality will be important. Zhaodong calls for a joined military inter-army command and for a joined civic and army duty, like it is done in the USA.

In his second book, “When will start the war against us?” (4), Zhang Zhaodong studies the famous doctrine of the Revolution in the army, which has modeled the American military behavior since the Gulf war. This so-called C4IMR domain (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Information, Monitoring and Reconnaissance), as well as the domain of the so-called Info-war, also implies the use of informatics and mobile devices. But, despite this all-round digitalization it is very important not to lose the touch with reality (which is often the case with the American strategy). So, the Chinese theoretic speaks of a general socialization and integration of a Chinese soldier into the society, not as an isolated military element, but as an important organic and psychological part of the Chinese society. It is a synthesis of the American hi-tech soldier with a soldier whose goal is not entirely economic, and who has not lost his will to defend his country - something like an Iraqi rebel of today. This is the Chinese fusion of “Man and Technique”, a fusion between a technically high educated individual with the Maoistic teachings of the revolutionary war, a fusion that will give birth to an invincible defense of the future. Because the Chinese seem to be suggesting that this new invincibility certainly will not come from the USA.

His third book, “Who will be the next target?” (5), directly mirrors the experiences, studies and analyses of the Kosovo war. In this study, he explicitly talks about the Serbian experience and craft in making false targets, such as plastic tanks, wooden radars and bridges. Since the antic times, the art of camouflage has been considered as a military craft, but in this age of Robocop and other Total Information Awareness science fictions it is being neglected. However, man is still superior to this technically produced virtual reality in the fields of cognitive combat as well in the use of non-militaristic weapons.

During the last war in Yugoslavia, the Yugoslav army made up for its lack of materials and technique (6) with series of war cunnings. The rustic Anti-air defense (PVO), based on Sam-6 missiles, always kept the attackers above 5000 meters, because they feared they might get shot down if they had got any lower. This greatly affected the attackers’ accuracy. The French soldiers, dragged into the whole affair against their own will, later stated that they had survived “the unbelievable war madhouse”. By shooting waves of bullets into the sky, the Yugoslav army destroyed almost a quarter of all the missiles coming from the Adriatic Sea, worth millions of dollars. This way they also brought down the “invisible” F-117, an incredibly expensive aircraft, researched and tested for many years before this war. New defense systems, with which the enemy pilot would be briefly blinded at a critical moment, were being discretely tested during the conflict. Roads were promptly adapted to air-strips. Airplanes and helicopters were being hidden in underground hermetically sealed shelters. The aggressor’s radio frequencies were being jammed or infiltrated in order to find out which are the possible targets, and even to misinform the pilots. Yugoslav troops were being rotated and fragmented into small, mobile units, which was very efficient in keeping the number of casualties extremely low. The Yugoslav army, a relatively small army, demonstrated its proficiency in leading a so-called asymmetric war. The army of Republic of Srpska, disguised as NATO soldiers, operated in the regions of Bjeljina, Tuzla and Pale. NATO had predicted before the start of the campaign that all would be over in 5 to 6 days. However, after the war against Yugoslavia and Serbia went on for 3 months. And when their missile supplies were almost completely depleted, they somehow managed to sign a peace treaty with Slobodan Milosevic. These are the subjects which the Chinese analyst has elaborated in his book. It needs to be said, that Zhang Zhaodong pulls no punches when it comes to the Russian government, personified in Yeltsin, which he accuses of betraying the Serbs by refusing to sell the S-300 anti-air missiles, which could have been very deadly for the NATO alliance. Zhaodong is also very critic of Chernomyrdin’s mission. All these Chinese doubts about Russia have faded after Putin became the Russian president, but still there is question that is being raised from time to time in Chinese official circles: Will Russia be able to fence off the USA in the next 20 years?

Zhaodong notices the differences between military concepts of France, Germany and USA, noting that NATO, under pressure from Washington, switched from its “defensive concept” to the “preventive” one. This meant that NATO’s entirely militaristic doctrine had evolved and became a politically-militaristic one. From a military neutral organization, it became an intervening organization. Zhaodong asks a question: “Why did the USA bomb the Chinese embassy in Belgrade?”, and readily gives the answer – it was a demonstration of power, a punishment for the country which had been helping the enemy, a country which had been testing its new defensive systems, and, finally, a country which at the moment had been helping Serbia much more then Yeltsin’s Russia of anti-Russian traitors and oligarchs. One thing which can be surely said today, and which is also clearly stated in Zhaodong’s book, is that the Chinese, by defending Serbians and keeping an eye on the Serbian struggle, had actually been preparing for their own defense.

Obviously standing in line with Beijing’s official policies, Zhaodong makes a difference between the first Gulf war, and what he calls “the Kosovo war”. Although illegitimate, the first Gulf war began after the attack on Kuwait, a UN member. As opposed to this, the war against Serbia was neither legal, nor legitimate, and Zhaodong calls it “completely unjustified”. It is certain that this is also the opinion of the Chinese government. Zhaodong finally comes to his most important conclusion, that the “reason” for the Kosovo war is something that is going to be used again for starting a conflict with China in the future. So, in his opinion, China should see as a warning everything that was happening with Yugoslavia: its dismemberment as a sovereign country, international support towards separatism in its member republics and autonomous regions, especially in Bosnia and in Kosovo (which have been turned into states by Madeleine Albright’s “diplomacy” and by use of military force). This could one day happen with Tibet or with Xinjiang, which is sometimes called “East Turkestan”. He rightly notices that the connection between Turko-islamism and pan-Turkism could affect China even more than it could affect Russia in the future.

These outstanding analyses of Zhang Zhaodong, alongside writings in Chinese military magazines, prove that the Chinese have become aware of the dangers that await them, by studying and analyzing the methodology of the destruction of Yugoslavia. This ancient and wise nation did not waste time in preparing for its defense…

UNRESTRICTED WARFARE

Of course, Zhaodong is not the only one in China who has studied these military and strategic questions. In the same year as Zhaodong, two other high officers of the Chinese air force, Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui published their work called “Unrestricted warfare” (7), which made a considerable impact in the USA. Stating in this book that a war with the USA is something which is almost certain in the future, the authors conclude that the only way for Chinese to be victorious in this war is if they start an unrestricted warfare. When it comes to economic wars, the USA never respects the international laws we so blindly follow here in the West. This said, the Chinese are also planning not to strictly follow these international laws in the forthcoming war with the USA. Washington’s rush to supply themselves with expensive weapons of the so-called military revolution has also been pointed out. In this study, there is also a prediction of Emmanuel Todd, first published in his work “Après l’Empire” (8), about a possibility of a collapse of the USA, the same way that the Soviet Union had collapsed in the past. The USA demise would come for the same reasons – an economic disaster will occur because of the huge spending on weapons for many wars they lead; there is a possibility of domestic riots because of these frequent wars the USA government starts; in the words of a Chinese official quoted in French literature, there is also a chance for the “collapse of the USA under the weight of its own decadence and cosmopolitism”. The “Zero dead” doctrine, which has been forgotten after the second war in Iraq, was being followed during the war in 1999. This issue, the issue of manpower, represents the weakest point for the Americans, according to Chinese authors Qiao and Wang. In the words of a Chinese general, China will not disappear if it sacrifices its people in the forthcoming war, but the USA most definitely will.

We can see today, that the number of USA casualties in Iraq, represent a big problem for the Americans, just like the Chinese had predicted. After September 11th 2001, the “Zero dead” doctrine was abandoned, with predictions of numerous casualties in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, wars which had been programmed long ago.

The Chinese authors notice the importance which the Americans give to “non-combative military actions”, claiming that the Americans have forgotten the importance of “non-military combative actions”, which are the key elements in the Chinese doctrine of the unrestricted warfare. In fact, the Americans are really suffering from this type of actions, when they are not using them themselves against others, such as guerilla or terrorism.

Although in the Western politics China is represented as a danger, China would gladly turn to completely different aspects and its own development, claim the Chinese strategists. But, they also say that China has to be prepared for its defense in this aggressive world. With 1.250.000.000 mouths to feed (as the Beijing authorities sometimes describe their population); with most of the population settled on the coasts of the Pacific; with limited fertile soil and poor agriculture; with large needs of importing cereals; with 20 over 5 million people cities; with a population which will reach its peak in 2010 (after which it will start decreasing due to the number of elderly); with growing needs of energy, vital for Chinese development; with ethnic and religious minorities of suspicious loyalties, located in geopolitically vital areas, such as Xinjiang, where centers for nuclear research are based, or Tibet, with its sources of water; with all these issues in mind, China would be very happy to avoid any type of confrontation with the USA and its allies. But China simply does not know what the other side will do when the time comes…

It is also important, say the military and economic strategists, to know the advantages China has. China owns a numerous, hard working, cheap, and qualified working power. Besides, the traces of Maoist education, which has brought the working men to their senses, have never really disappeared, and neither has the centuries old patriotism of this ancient nation, nor its usual awareness of geopolitical problems. All this has safely kept the “Trojan horses” of the West, manifested in various non-governmental organizations, out of China. This Western methodology, so efficient in some other countries, never made it in China. The old Confucians, very wise when it comes to trading business, have tied their currency for the US dollar, bought a large number of American treasury bills and now trade efficiently with the whole world, always profiting on rivalries between Europe and Africa on one side and the USA on the other. For example, during the last visit of US president Bush to China, the Chinese made a promise to buy 70 US made Boeing aircrafts, even though they had always used European Air-Buses. This was a clear warning to the shy and indecisive Europe to quit supporting the US embargo on weapons trading with China. China knew, of course, that the two main producers of the Air-Bus, France and Germany, have always been against the embargo in the first place, as opposed to the rest of the “American” Europe, represented by Jose Manuel Barroso (9). The “promise” to George Bush of buying several Boeings, as well as China’s decision not to immediately concede its fast train market to France, should have represented the Chinese punishment for cowardly Europe for its blind support to the USA.

Still, the coming Olympic Games in Beijing in 2008, after which comes the Shanghai World exhibition 2010, represent one great success for the Chinese with which they can overcome many problems, and which will revitalize and bring joy to the Chinese people. But, we will see that exactly this year of 2010 will be a geopolitically decisive year. The experts in Pentagon consider that in this year China will finally gather enough strength to bring upset to the American world hegemony. Time for the Americans to make moves and try to prevent this from happening gets shorter by the day, and the Americans know it…

In March 2001, Gerald Fouchet wrote in his well documented article called “Towards a new cold war, China-America” that China has reached a massive level of growth of arms production and manpower, far more superior to the level of growth seen in Germany between 1933 and 1940, and in the USA after Pearl Harbor. According to this author, the cause for a future conflict does not necessarily have to be Taiwan, but it could be a general conflict between China and America over the control of the Pacific. Today, China is developing its navy and its air force more than its infantry. China is also perfecting its ballistic potential. “So, China is preparing itself for a conflict of postmodern type, focused on an electronic war, aircrafts, submarines and satellites, a conflict which will inevitably become a partially nuclear one”, says the author.

We do not have to remind that China will never neglect the patriotic, psychological and the human factor in its preparation for this war. In the words of Ludovic Woets, counselor in the French Ministry of defense: “For China, the most important is not to gain economic control, but above all – political and moral control”.

A GIANT CHESSBOARD

Ludovic Woets predicts two possibilities considering China’s future. The first scenario, frequently mentioned, is a future disintegration of China. In a recent study of American expert sinologists, the most possible outcome is a “breakup” of China. This thesis originates from a work of a son of a Chinese official, called “China as seen with a third eye”. In this work he predicted “a breakup of a Yugoslavian type”.

The second possible scenario, according to Woets, is the “rising of nationalistic tensions”, in other words, confrontations with neighbors, Regional tensions are certainly present, we all remember the 1979 war with Vietnam, and besides the case of Taiwan, which is protected by the USA, there are still Japan, Korea, the Philippines, Malaysia and others. Already several conflicts have been provoked between these countries over the surrounding islands.

Comparing China’s opening towards the world with the Meiji era of Japan, Woets sees the modernization of the Chinese army as a strategy of force and power of a great country “degraded and humiliated for too long”. Acquiring everything it needed for its renaissance, China wants to find and strengthen its “centrality”, through “The Great Empire of centre and media”.

Predicting possible perspectives for China, Woets determines a possible policy of China in relations with its continental and over-sea neighbors, in its, how Beijing calls it, “vital space”:

1. This Chinese policy will require, after Hong Kong (1997) and Macao (1999), unification with Taiwan, also.
2. This will further lead to the unification of two Koreas, and subsequently, to furthering of one of the Koreas from the USA.
3. China will strive to maximally overlook and control Japan, its possible “enemy”, and the only rival in the region.

However, at the same time, China’s rivalry with India and their confronted interests might provoke indirect confrontations.

Many analysts believe that “the future ‘Great war’ might escalate in the triangle of China-India-Pakistan, the so-called nuclear triangle”.

Turned to the south-east of Asia and the Pacific, China always remains informed of what is happening behind its back, fearing that Central Asia might not become a new zone of risk them. This is also one of the reasons why China is in good relations with Russia. Aymeric Chauprade, a professor of the Army school in Paris, confirms that the Americans are aware of the significance of the Chinese revival. In his book “China as the main object of American geopolitics” (10), Chauprad states: “The analyses of American strategic literature since the breakup of the Soviet Union, as well as certain statements of their politicians, clearly show that China is the priority of the American geopolitical thought. And it remains so, even after 9/11”. The author then suggests possible actions of Washington in order to prevent and stop further strengthening of China:

1. Control of Chinese energetic needs
2. Surrounding China with American allies
3. Neutralization of China’s nuclear potential
4. Creating internal subversions by helping various separatists

By occupying Iraq in 2003, the USA managed to block the access to oil supplies, which was their main goal. If the USA would manage to bring down the regime in Iran, then the complete transport of oil towards Beijing would be cut-off. So, the support to Iran is of vital interest for China and for Russia. Russia also wants to prevent the creation of a new American satellite on the shores of the Caspian Sea. Emphasizing that since 1999, the USA are consolidating their relationship with India which is also a nuclear force like Pakistan (as well as Israel, which is more and more deepening its military cooperation with India), but seeing India also as a natural counter-force for China, Chaupard sums up the problem between China and India. Pakistan has always kept a traditionally good relationship with China. India is a country which provides protection for Dalai Lama, which balances between Washington and Moscow, and which is in dispute with China over the Himalayas. So, with a great deal of certainty we can presume that if Pakistan ceases to be a member of the new “Pact of Baghdad” which America is trying to create, and if it turns to the Islamist axis, hostile towards Washington and Tel Aviv, then America will do its best to make India a substitute for Pakistan. That is why Moscow is assuming the role of a mediator between New Delhi and Beijing, trying to establish good relations between these two Asian rivals, and to counter American geopolitical plans.

As for the Far East, America is relying on surrounding China with Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines, a strategy used during the Cold war. Washington is also trying to please Vietnam and bring down the “Birman junta”, which is being discreetly supported by Beijing. Finally, Mongolia, recently visited by NATO pact emissaries, completes this circle around China. It is clear how and why China wants to keep an eye on and control the situation behind its back in Central Asia, and this can only be done with the help of Russia.

As for the futuristic predictions of a “yellow invasion” on Siberia, most of serious analysts think of it as impossible for now, even in the period of a possible maximal Chinese expansion in years 2010-2020. This said, the incorrect term of “Euro Siberia” is erased, as well as the mystic alliance with Japan. We return to a more classic concept of geopolitics and international relations, which has been well defined by the French visionary Jacques Bainville, when he compared, between the two wars, the position of Japan in Asia with the position of the British Isles in Europe.

Basically, to bring dynamics of one China into the geopolitical concept of EURASIA, means to allow a pragmatic union of European living forces and Russia in order to promote a new “Continental middle force”, and to give birth to a new geopolitical axis of power and freedom in a new MULTIPOLAR world. Simply, to fence off the USA, China needs Europe, and Europe needs China in order to free itself from its occupier – also the USA.

CONCLUSION

At the moment, the only existing hegemonic force in the world which strives to remain exclusive and to prevent the creation of a multipolar world, personified by the USA, is worrying China in the area of the Pacific, as well as the Eurasian continental great Europe form the Atlantic to the Pacific. The hegemonic policy of the American Far East, an idea the USA does not plan to quit, could in a long term lead to an outbreak of a new great war.

That is why every conscious geopolitician and every enlightened national leader must know that the fight for national liberations has already begun though the great Eurasian concept of free peoples. Unless the world hegemonic force does not back down from its wars for energetic supplies and pretensions of enslaving other countries and other peoples,  the name of this new multipolarity of the world, made up in the vast region of “Eurasia”, will be, drawn in blood on the giant chessboard, in the next war predicted by Chinese strategists.

FOOTNOTES

(1) The countries which are members of the “Shanghai cooperation organization” (OCS), are also members of the “Organization of the treaty of collective security” (OTSC), a structure founded by Russia to counter the NATO pact, and which gathers Russia, Armenia, Byelorussia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
(2)  Пекинг, China Youth Press, mars, 1999.
(3) Paris, Guerre et Contre-Guerre, Survivre au XXI Siecle, Fayard 1993.
(4) Beijing, PLA Publishing House, July 1999.
(5) Beijing, China Youth Press, September, 1999.
(6) Military equipment of Yugoslavian, but also Soviet and French manufacture.
(7) PLA Publishing House, February 1999.
(8) Paris, Gallimard, 2002
(9) While visiting France, the Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, with his French colleague Dominique de Villepin present, signed a contract for buying 150 AIR-BUS airplanes. On this occasion several other expensive contracts had been announced in the field of railway transport, as well as in the fields of electronuclear and oil industries.
(10) Revue Francaise de Geopolitique, Paris, n 1, 2003

SUMMARY

In the study “China and the forthcoming war” by Yves Bataille, the importance and the phenomenon of the Chinese giant of the 21st century are elaborated, using first-hand theoretical and physical experience, as well as all the presumptions for the Chinese global policy and a new geopolitical scene which China is building today with its enormous strength. Relations between this ancient nation and other countries of the world are also elaborated, and the works of American geopoliticians and their fears of the Chinese uprising are also shown. The author shows why the hypothesis of the Chinese strategists of a possible future war with the USA over energy supplies is present in every serious analyst’s study. Also, the author is picturing how Russia and China are creating a new multipolar world by supporting the continental creation of Eurasia.